Poland to close Belarus border due to Russian-Belarusian war games

Poland's PM cites "aggressive" manoeuvres

Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus ahead of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 military exercises underscores the extent to which NATO’s eastern flank remains on edge more than three years into Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The manoeuvres, beginning Friday, are officially billed as defensive, yet their scale and geography – concentrated near the Polish frontier and the strategic Suwałki Gap, a vital corridor linking the Baltic states with the rest of NATO – carry unsettling echoes of Moscow’s doctrine of pressure through intimidation.

Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk calls the exercises "aggressive from a military doctrine perspective". Warsaw is signalling that even peacetime drills cannot be isolated from their wider strategic context.

Uncertainty around the Russias and Belarussian exercises

The disparity in reported troop numbers illustrates the uncertainty that surrounds the exercises. Russia and Belarus claim 13,000 personnel will participate, a figure conveniently tailored to avoid international treaties requiring observers. German and Lithuanian assessments put the number much higher, pointing to a deliberate attempt by Moscow to disguise the real scope of its mobilisation. This ambiguity feeds regional anxieties, particularly as Belarus has explicitly linked Zapad-2025 to operations involving nuclear planning – a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s readiness to flaunt escalation scenarios.

For NATO, the challenge lies in calibrating its response. Germany’s military leadership insists there is no evidence of preparations for an attack, yet the drills themselves serve a strategic purpose: rehearsing contingencies while testing the cohesion of NATO’s deterrence posture.

Kyiv’s warning that Zapad-2025 threatens not just Ukraine but Europe as a whole reflects a broader truth. The exercises are less about imminent invasion than about projecting power, sowing uncertainty, and forcing the alliance to remain on permanent alert – a central tenet of Russia’s hybrid confrontation with the West.

Edited for clarity.

(Michael Leahy. Source: Polskie Radio et al. Photo: (c) Anthony Beck / Pexels)