Agency predicts duration of the war in Ukraine

The international credit rating agency Moody's remains sceptical about the prospects for ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.

Moody's doesn't expect significant progress in negotiations in the short term. The baseline assumption is that the war will continue and, by the end of the year, a ceasefire agreement may be reached in some form or another.

Even if an agreement is reached, the consequences of a ceasefire or a negotiated settlement will depend on the reliability of Europe's security guarantees, the capabilities of the Ukrainian army's defence, and the country's ability to maintain its independence in the face of Russia's attempts at political interference, the statement says.

According to analysts, the impact of the war with Russia will continue to create long-term problems for Ukraine's economy and public finances.

Despite the resilience of Ukraine's economy under wartime conditions, a workforce shortage and ongoing Russian military attacks on critical energy infrastructure have contributed to a slowdown in the second half of 2024, the statement adds.

The agency expects the economy to continue slowing in 2025, with Ukraine's economic growth likely to remain weak in 2026 and 2027.

(MH with AmBar - Source: X - Photo: © DPA - Anadolu - State Emergency Service of Ukraine)